Portugal's PM stays in power – but far right surges to joint second

Portuguese Prime Minister Luís Montenegro and his center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) have claimed victory in Sunday's snap election – but with a victory so narrow that it could make governing significantly harder.

The AD won over 32 percent of the vote, enough to stay in power but not enough to secure a parliamentary majority. The DA will control 89 seats in parliament, up nine from last year's election but still 27 seats fewer than the 116 needed for a governing majority.

Meanwhile, the far-right Chega party surged to a record 23.3 percent, nearly doubling its 2022 results and ending in a tie with the Socialist Party (PS). 

It's the first time in nearly 40 years that Portugal's politics is no longer defined by a two-party tug-of-war between the center-right AD and the socialists.

This new era presents Montenegro with a complex challenge: leading a stable government in a deeply fragmented parliament. He has ruled out forming any kind of alliance with Chega, a party known for its anti-immigration and populist rhetoric, but will now face a parliament where the far-right has considerable power to block reforms.

The snap election was triggered after Montenegro's minority government lost a confidence vote in March, following scrutiny over undeclared private income linked to his family's consultancy firm – allegations he denies. Now, he argues the result shows voters chose to give him a second chance.

"The Portuguese people spoke, it exercised its rights, and with its freedom, approved, without any doubt, a vote of confidence in the coalition and in the Prime Minister", Montenegro said during his victory speech.

But the broader message from voters is more complicated. Years of instability, rising inequality, a housing crisis, and public frustration with corruption – particularly under previous governments – have helped fuel Chega's rise.

Montenegro's biggest challenge now isn't just forming a government – it's navigating a radically altered political landscape. With Chega nearly doubling its support, the far right is now an emboldened force with real veto power in parliament. 

Though Montenegro has ruled out governing with them, their influence will loom large, as they push to bring their anti-immigration, law-and-order agenda into the mainstream - and threaten to block legislation from the outside if sidelined.

As coalition talks begin, it's clear that Portugal's politics have undergone a seismic change.