Pro-EU mayor wins first round of Poland's presidential election

Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, deputy leader of Prime Minister Donald Tusks' centrist Civic Platform, has won the first round of the presidential election, despite a strong showing for his right-wing rival. He faces a tough second round run-off when the country returns to the polls next month.

Margin of victory

With all ballots counted from the weekend's vote, results show that Trzaskowski, part of ruling Civic Coalition, took 31.36 percent of the vote. Karol Nawrocki, from the opposition Law and Justice party of the incumbent President Andrjez Duda, finished with 29.54 percent.

Trzaskowski told reporters: "I'm glad that many young people went to the polls, but it's a great challenge to convince them to vote for me." Nawrocki, a nationalist who met U.S. President Trump in the Oval Office earlier this month, vowed to fight on as "the guardian of the social achievements of the Law and Justice government.”

The margin of victory is smaller than predicted, with opinion polls having shown precentage leads of between four and six points for Trzaskowski. Analysts say the result sends a strong message to the coalition government, which unseated the eight-year rule of the Law and Justice party in parliamentary elections in October 2023.

'Not one step back'

Prime Minister Donald Tusk, himself former President of the European Council, came to power promising reforms to voters aimed at ending Poland's years-long standoff with the EU under the rule of the Law and Justice party, which had led to billions of euros in aid being suspended.

While the president's role is largely ceremonial, it holds a crucial power of veto over new legislation. Tusk's attempts at legal change have been blocked by the outgoing President Duda, who after two terms in office is ineligible to run again.

Key policies of the Civic Coalition to attract EU support, in areas like the liberalisation of abortion and provision for same-sex civil partnerships, have stalled along with attempts to undo controversial changes by the previous government to the country's judiciary.

Members are fearful that failure to win the presidency risks Poland's entire pro- EU project, as the bloc's fifth largest economy seeks to recalibrate it's ties with Brussels. Prime Minister Tusk, reacting to the first round of voting on social media, claimed "the next two weeks will decide the future of our homeland. That is why, not a step back."

'Agreement' over Ukraine

The conflict in neighboring Ukraine has also been a key issue which has split the electorate. 

The presidential poll handed the best result ever for the right-wing Confederation party, which came third at 14.8 percent of the vote. Its candidate Sławomir Mentzen has called for an "agreement" with President Putin to end the fighting. Other parties claim the estimated 4.2 percent of GDP Poland is paying to support its million-plus Ukrainian refugee population is unsustainable.

Tusk's government, however – while warning that it cannot "give everything" to the conflict – has pledged unwavering support to Kyiv and aims to increase defense spending to 4.7 percent of GDP this year.

Victory in the second round of the presidential poll on June 1 will likely depend on which candidate can win support from competing smaller groups on Poland's left and right.